Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 2.182264 2.304008 2.435384 2.588934 2.765151 2.963211 3.205896
2025-05-18 2.011073 2.160080 2.327333 2.531978 2.780123 3.077836 3.473402
2025-05-25 1.915416 2.083069 2.276794 2.522323 2.833568 3.228461 3.794026
2025-06-01 1.838769 2.018524 2.230894 2.507635 2.871477 3.355939 4.099733
2025-06-08 1.773402 1.961199 2.187036 2.488096 2.896305 3.463530 4.393377
2025-06-15 1.736537 1.935027 2.178142 2.510145 2.975751 3.655032 4.861613
2025-06-22 1.663926 1.860277 2.102730 2.437435 2.914168 3.625998 4.942585
2025-06-29 1.625476 1.826240 2.077154 2.429252 2.942872 3.738438 5.312395
2025-07-06 1.574856 1.774425 2.025611 2.381520 2.908218 3.742800 5.468171
2025-07-13 1.560039 1.767480 2.032190 2.414513 2.996965 3.964707 6.171414
2025-07-20 1.557038 1.775279 2.058228 2.476216 3.135842 4.300197 7.353915
2025-07-27 1.529283 1.749366 2.037080 2.467234 3.159226 4.423568 8.047559
2025-08-03 1.504753 1.727870 2.022387 2.468987 3.204255 4.606771 9.151010
2025-08-10 1.464640 1.684228 1.975153 2.418701 3.155540 4.585440 9.471963
2025-08-17 1.440696 1.661466 1.956120 2.410306 3.178850 4.725167 10.693502
2025-08-24 1.416745 1.637877 1.934890 2.397096 3.192045 4.845082 12.075373
2025-08-31 1.392817 1.613575 1.911685 2.379400 3.195274 4.942548 13.615149
2025-09-07 1.381828 1.606439 1.912509 2.399413 3.269779 5.235064 18.101374
2025-09-14 1.345807 1.564065 1.861234 2.333376 3.175443 5.067301 17.088826
2025-09-21 1.328635 1.547267 1.846532 2.325932 3.193644 5.208666 21.092134
2025-09-28 1.301716 1.516429 1.810586 2.282448 3.138619 5.138051 21.572685
2025-10-05 1.297125 1.516338 1.819402 2.312515 3.230850 5.511098 41.093646
2025-10-12 1.299773 1.526290 1.843189 2.368627 3.382544 6.136491 NaN